Conquense 1–0 Atlético Tomelloso: Result & Stats

Conquense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Tomelloso

4/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 29Estadio Municipal La Fuensanta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Conquense62%

×Draw24%

Atlético Tomelloso14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConquenseExpected goals in this matchAtlético Tomelloso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.66

Conquense

1.67

Atlético Tomelloso

0.66

Conquense creates 153% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 32 away

1.41

creates per match

0.56

0.76

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Conquense

1.41

Atlético Tomelloso

0.56

allows per match

Conquense

0.76

Atlético Tomelloso

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Conquense+0.00on par

Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conquense ↓

Atlético Tomelloso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Conquense or draw

86%

Conquense or Atlético Tomelloso

76%

Draw or Atlético Tomelloso

38%

Winning margin

Conquense wins by 2+

35%

Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Conquense 1+ goals

81%

Conquense 2+ goals

50%

Conquense 3+ goals

23%

Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals

48%

Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals

14%

Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Conquense (draw refunded)

81%

Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conquense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 78 matches

Atlético Tomelloso away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conquense attack 1.41 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.56 + Conquense defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Conquense scores more

62%

level

24%

Atlético Tomelloso scores more

14%

Conquense at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff