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Conil vs Sevilla III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sevilla III
Sevilla III
1/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 18Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Conil46%
×Draw29%
Sevilla III25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.27
Sevilla III
0.85

Conil creates 49% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
Sevilla III
0.85

allows per match

Conil
0.85
Sevilla III
1.18

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
Sevilla III+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Sevilla III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Conil or draw
75%
Conil or Sevilla III
71%
Draw or Sevilla III
54%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
21%
Sevilla III wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
72%
Conil 2+ goals
36%
Conil 3+ goals
14%
Sevilla III 1+ goals
57%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
21%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
65%
Sevilla III (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Sevilla III away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Sevilla III defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sevilla III attack 0.85 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Conil scores more
46%
level
29%
Sevilla III scores more
25%

Conil at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Conil vs Sevilla III

Conil beat Sevilla III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.