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Conil vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
La Palma
La Palma
Carlos Cuenca 29'
Álvaro Fernández 81'
Andrés Pavón 37'
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Conil52%
×Draw26%
La Palma21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.51
La Palma
0.86

Conil creates 76% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 48 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Conil
0.85
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Conil or draw
79%
Conil or La Palma
74%
Draw or La Palma
48%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
27%
La Palma wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
78%
Conil 2+ goals
44%
Conil 3+ goals
19%
La Palma 1+ goals
58%
La Palma 2+ goals
21%
La Palma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
71%
La Palma (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

La Palma attack 0.88 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Conil scores more
52%
level
26%
La Palma scores more
21%

Conil at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Carlos Cuenca
37'
Andrés Pavón
67'
Álvaro Fernández← Pedro Juan
70'
Juanjo← José Ruiz
80'
Fran Lobo← Álvaro Hurtado
81'
Álvaro Fernández
82'
Y. Nwatsock← Álex Sánchez
82'
Pinto← Gabi
89'
Álvaro Prieto← Omar
89'
Álvaro Perea← Zaca
Conil
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
Navarro
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Pedro Juan
▼
Juan
Andrés Pavón
⚽
Pavón
Alejandro Pérez
Pérez
Omar
▼
Omar
Álex Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Gabi
▼
Gabi
Zaca
▼
Zaca
Manu López
López
Jesús López
López
Álvaro Ramírez
Ramírez
Kevin Gil
Gil
Elias
Elias
Francisco Mejias
Mejias
José Ruiz
▼
Ruiz
Manzorro
Manzorro
Álvaro Hurtado
▼
Hurtado
Carlos Cuenca
⚽
Cuenca
I. Ndiaye
Ndiaye
Juan Román
Manager: Juan Román
70'▲Juanjo←▼José Ruiz
80'▲Fran Lobo←▼Álvaro Hurtado

Conil substitutes

JuanjoLobo
Nacho Molina
Manager: Nacho Molina
67'▲Álvaro Fernández←▼Pedro Juan
82'▲Y. Nwatsock←▼Álex Sánchez
82'▲Pinto←▼Gabi
89'▲Álvaro Prieto←▼Omar
89'▲Álvaro Perea←▼Zaca

La Palma substitutes

FernándezNwatsockPintoPrietoPerea

Match Recap: Conil vs La Palma

La Palma beat Conil 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 5, 2024.

Goals: Carlos Cuenca (29'), Andrés Pavón (37'), Álvaro Fernández (81').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.