Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Conil vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Carlos Cuenca 62'
4/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Conil52%
×Draw26%
La Palma21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.51
La Palma
0.86

Conil creates 76% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 48 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Conil
0.85
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Conil or draw
79%
Conil or La Palma
74%
Draw or La Palma
48%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
27%
La Palma wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
78%
Conil 2+ goals
44%
Conil 3+ goals
19%
La Palma 1+ goals
58%
La Palma 2+ goals
21%
La Palma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
71%
La Palma (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

La Palma attack 0.88 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Conil scores more
52%
level
26%
La Palma scores more
21%

Conil at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
Manu Calle← Nené
54'
Juan Ureba← Álvarito
62'
Carlos Cuenca
65'
Manolo Suárez← Manu Cruzado
65'
Mazin← Pablo Garcia
66'
Javi Gómez← Francisco Mejias
66'
Manolete← Alberto Ramírez
72'
Segura← Paco
78'
Fran Rodríguez← Javi Tamayo
Conil
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Diego Domínguez
Domínguez
Carlos Martínez
Martínez
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Nené
▼
Nené
Paco
▼
Paco
Mario de Iraola
Iraola
Alvarito
Alvarito
Pablo Garcia
▼
Garcia
Manu Cruzado
▼
Cruzado
Galleti
Galleti
Fran
Fran
Pablo Ureba
Ureba
Mario Sánchez
Sánchez
Fran Paul
Paul
Manu Lebrón
Lebrón
Antonio Manzano
Manzano
Carlos Cuenca
⚽
Cuenca
Javi Tamayo
▼
Tamayo
Francisco Mejias
▼
Mejias
Alberto Ramírez
▼
Ramírez
Álvarito
▼
Álvarito
Lázaro Luis
Manager: Lázaro Luis
54'▲Juan Ureba←▼Álvarito
66'▲Javi Gómez←▼Francisco Mejias
66'▲Manolete←▼Alberto Ramírez
78'▲Fran Rodríguez←▼Javi Tamayo

Conil substitutes

UrebaGómezManoleteRodríguez
Mario Rodriguez
Manager: Mario Rodriguez
42'▲Manu Calle←▼Nené
65'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Manu Cruzado
65'▲Mazin←▼Pablo Garcia
72'▲Segura←▼Paco

La Palma substitutes

CalleSuárezMazinSegura

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Conil 1–0 La Palma

Conil beat La Palma 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 11, 2021.

Goals: Carlos Cuenca (62').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.