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Conil vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Córdoba II
Córdoba II
2/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 22Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Conil45%
×Draw28%
Córdoba II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.35
Córdoba II
0.99

Conil creates 36% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
Córdoba II
1.13

allows per match

Conil
0.85
Córdoba II
1.34

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Córdoba II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Conil or draw
73%
Conil or Córdoba II
72%
Draw or Córdoba II
55%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
21%
Córdoba II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
74%
Conil 2+ goals
39%
Conil 3+ goals
15%
Córdoba II 1+ goals
63%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
26%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
62%
Córdoba II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Conil scores more
45%
level
28%
Córdoba II scores more
27%

Conil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Conil 2–0 Córdoba II

Conil beat Córdoba II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.