Conil 1–0 Ayamonte: Result & Stats

Conil

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ayamonte

10/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Conil51%

×Draw27%

Ayamonte22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConilExpected goals in this matchAyamonte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.83

Conil

1.44

Ayamonte

0.83

Conil creates 73% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 32 away

1.35

creates per match

0.81

0.85

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Conil

1.35

Ayamonte

0.81

allows per match

Conil

0.85

Ayamonte

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Conil+0.00on par

Ayamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Ayamonte →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Conil or draw

78%

Conil or Ayamonte

73%

Draw or Ayamonte

49%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+

26%

Ayamonte wins by 2+

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals

76%

Conil 2+ goals

42%

Conil 3+ goals

18%

Ayamonte 1+ goals

56%

Ayamonte 2+ goals

20%

Ayamonte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)

70%

Ayamonte (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Ayamonte away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Ayamonte defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ayamonte attack 0.81 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Conil scores more

51%

level

27%

Ayamonte scores more

22%

Conil at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff