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Conil vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 17Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Conil55%
×Draw25%
Atlético Espeleño21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.63
Atlético Espeleño
0.89

Conil creates 83% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Conil
0.85
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Conil or draw
79%
Conil or Atlético Espeleño
75%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
45%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
29%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
80%
Conil 2+ goals
48%
Conil 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
73%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.63

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Conil scores more
55%
level
25%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
21%

Conil at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Conil 4 – 2 Atlético Espeleño

Conil beat Atlético Espeleño 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.