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Conil vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
3/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Conil43%
×Draw31%
Atlético Central26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.13
Atlético Central
0.81

Conil creates 40% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 35 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
Atlético Central
0.77

allows per match

Conil
0.85
Atlético Central
0.91

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Conil or draw
74%
Conil or Atlético Central
69%
Draw or Atlético Central
57%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
68%
Conil 2+ goals
31%
Conil 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Conil scores more
43%
level
31%
Atlético Central scores more
26%

Conil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Conil vs Atlético Central

Conil and Atlético Central drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.