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Conil vs Antoniano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Antoniano
Antoniano
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 13Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Conil42%
×Draw29%
Antoniano29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.20
Antoniano
0.94

Conil creates 28% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 57 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
Antoniano
1.02

allows per match

Conil
0.85
Antoniano
1.04

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
Antoniano+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Antoniano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Conil or draw
71%
Conil or Antoniano
71%
Draw or Antoniano
58%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
18%
Antoniano wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
70%
Conil 2+ goals
34%
Conil 3+ goals
12%
Antoniano 1+ goals
61%
Antoniano 2+ goals
24%
Antoniano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
59%
Antoniano (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Antoniano away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Antoniano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Antoniano attack 1.02 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Conil scores more
42%
level
29%
Antoniano scores more
29%

Conil at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Conil 2–0 Antoniano

Conil beat Antoniano 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.