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Congo vs Zimbabwe — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Congo
Congo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
9/9/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat (Brazzaville)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Congo49%
×Draw26%
Zimbabwe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Congo
1.48
Zimbabwe
0.95

Congo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Congo
1.67
Zimbabwe
0.90

allows per match

Congo
1.00
Zimbabwe
1.30

finishing

Congo+0.00on par
Zimbabwe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congo ↓

Zimbabwe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Congo or draw
76%
Congo or Zimbabwe
74%
Draw or Zimbabwe
51%

Winning margin

Congo wins by 2+
25%
Zimbabwe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Congo 1+ goals
77%
Congo 2+ goals
43%
Congo 3+ goals
19%
Zimbabwe 1+ goals
61%
Zimbabwe 2+ goals
25%
Zimbabwe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Congo (draw refunded)
67%
Zimbabwe (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Zimbabwe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congo attack 1.67 + Zimbabwe defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zimbabwe attack 0.90 + Congo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Congo scores more
49%
level
26%
Zimbabwe scores more
24%

Congo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Congo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Congo vs Zimbabwe

Congo and Zimbabwe drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat (Brazzaville).