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Congo vs Congo DR — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Congo
Congo
FT
1 – 1
Congo DR
Congo DR
11/18/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 6Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat (Brazzaville)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Congo39%
×Draw28%
Congo DR33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Congo
1.23
Congo DR
1.10

Congo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Congo
1.67
Congo DR
1.20

allows per match

Congo
1.00
Congo DR
0.80

finishing

Congo+0.00on par
Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congo ↓

Congo DR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Congo or draw
67%
Congo or Congo DR
72%
Draw or Congo DR
61%

Winning margin

Congo wins by 2+
17%
Congo DR wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Congo 1+ goals
71%
Congo 2+ goals
35%
Congo 3+ goals
13%
Congo DR 1+ goals
67%
Congo DR 2+ goals
30%
Congo DR 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Congo (draw refunded)
54%
Congo DR (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Congo DR away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congo attack 1.67 + Congo DR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Congo DR attack 1.20 + Congo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Congo scores more
39%
level
28%
Congo DR scores more
33%

Congo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Congo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Congo 1 – 1 Congo DR

Congo and Congo DR drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on November 18, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat (Brazzaville).