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Congo DR vs Zambia — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Congo DR
Congo DR
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zambia
Zambia
1/17/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Stade Laurent Pokou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Congo DR46%
×Draw28%
Zambia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Congo DR
1.31
Zambia
0.90

Congo DR creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Congo DR
1.43
Zambia
0.80

allows per match

Congo DR
1.00
Zambia
1.20

finishing

Congo DR+0.00on par
Zambia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congo DR ↓

Zambia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Congo DR or draw
74%
Congo DR or Zambia
72%
Draw or Zambia
54%

Winning margin

Congo DR wins by 2+
21%
Zambia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Congo DR 1+ goals
73%
Congo DR 2+ goals
38%
Congo DR 3+ goals
14%
Zambia 1+ goals
59%
Zambia 2+ goals
23%
Zambia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Congo DR (draw refunded)
64%
Zambia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congo DR at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Zambia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congo DR attack 1.43 + Zambia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zambia attack 0.80 + Congo DR defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Congo DR scores more
46%
level
28%
Zambia scores more
26%

Congo DR at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Congo DR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Congo DR vs Zambia

Congo DR and Zambia drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Laurent Pokou in San-Pedro.