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Congo DR vs Sierra Leone — Friendlies 2026

Congo DR
Congo DR
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone
Meschack Elia 75'
Edo Kayembe 73'
Ben Malango 70'
9/27/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Père-Jégo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Congo DR62%
×Draw24%
Sierra Leone14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Congo DR
1.65
Sierra Leone
0.65

Congo DR creates 154% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Congo DR
1.06
Sierra Leone
0.54

allows per match

Congo DR
0.75
Sierra Leone
2.23

finishing

Congo DR+0.00on par
Sierra Leone+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congo DR ↓

Sierra Leone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Congo DR or draw
86%
Congo DR or Sierra Leone
76%
Draw or Sierra Leone
38%

Winning margin

Congo DR wins by 2+
34%
Sierra Leone wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Congo DR 1+ goals
81%
Congo DR 2+ goals
49%
Congo DR 3+ goals
23%
Sierra Leone 1+ goals
48%
Sierra Leone 2+ goals
14%
Sierra Leone 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Congo DR (draw refunded)
81%
Sierra Leone (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congo DR at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Sierra Leone away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congo DR attack 1.06 + Sierra Leone defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sierra Leone attack 0.54 + Congo DR defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Congo DR scores more
62%
level
24%
Sierra Leone scores more
14%

Congo DR at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Congo DR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
Ben Malango
73'
Edo Kayembe
75'
Meschack Elia
Congo
Sierra
J. Keister
Manager: J. Keister

Friendlies: Congo DR 3–0 Sierra Leone

Congo DR beat Sierra Leone 3-0 in Friendlies on September 27, 2022.

Goals: Ben Malango (70'), Edo Kayembe (73'), Meschack Elia (75').

The match was played at Stade Père-Jégo in Casablanca.