Congo DR 3–1 Guinea: Result & Stats

Congo DR

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Guinea

2/2/2024

Africa Cup of Nations · Quarter-finalsStade Olympique Alassane Ouattara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Congo DR44%

×Draw28%

Guinea28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Congo DRExpected goals in this matchGuinea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.96

Congo DR

1.30

Guinea

0.96

Congo DR creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.43

creates per match

0.91

1.00

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Congo DR

1.43

Guinea

0.91

allows per match

Congo DR

1.00

Guinea

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Congo DR+0.00on par

Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congo DR ↓

Guinea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Congo DR or draw

72%

Congo DR or Guinea

72%

Draw or Guinea

56%

Winning margin

Congo DR wins by 2+

20%

Guinea wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Congo DR 1+ goals

73%

Congo DR 2+ goals

37%

Congo DR 3+ goals

14%

Guinea 1+ goals

62%

Guinea 2+ goals

25%

Guinea 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Congo DR (draw refunded)

62%

Guinea (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congo DR at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congo DR attack 1.43 + Guinea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Guinea attack 0.91 + Congo DR defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Congo DR scores more

44%

level

28%

Guinea scores more

28%

Congo DR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Congo DR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff