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Congo DR vs Benin — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Congo DR
Congo DR
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Benin
Benin
T. Bongonda 16'
12/23/2025Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Al-Barid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Congo DR57%
×Draw27%
Benin16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Congo DR
1.46
Benin
0.63

Congo DR creates 132% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Congo DR
1.43
Benin
0.25

allows per match

Congo DR
1.00
Benin
1.50

finishing

Congo DR+0.00on par
Benin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congo DR ↓

Benin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Congo DR or draw
84%
Congo DR or Benin
73%
Draw or Benin
43%

Winning margin

Congo DR wins by 2+
30%
Benin wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Congo DR 1+ goals
77%
Congo DR 2+ goals
43%
Congo DR 3+ goals
18%
Benin 1+ goals
47%
Benin 2+ goals
13%
Benin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Congo DR (draw refunded)
78%
Benin (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congo DR at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Benin away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congo DR attack 1.43 + Benin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Benin attack 0.25 + Congo DR defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Congo DR scores more
57%
level
27%
Benin scores more
16%

Congo DR at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Congo DR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. BongondaCongo DRCongo DR · M
8.0

Match Events

16'
T. Bongonda↳ A. Masuaku
20'
Samuel Moutoussamy
36'
Edo Kayembe
51'
Cédric BakambuGoal cancelled
52'
Jodel Dossou
55'
N. Mukau← E. Kayembe
63'
R. Amoussou← J. Dossou
64'
Cédric Bakambu
68'
J. Kayembe← A. Masuaku
68'
M. Elia← T. Bongonda
72'
Romaric Amoussou
77'
Abdoul Rachid Moumini
82'
A. Samadou← S. D'Almeida
85'
F. Mayele← C. Bakambu
85'
B. Cipenga← N. Mbuku
90+1'
O. Tessilimi← A. Tosin

Possession

40%Congo

Shots

11Congo

Pass accuracy

47%Congo

Statistics

CongoBenin
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots12
5Corners5
16Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots12
3On Target2
5Off Target10
3Blocked0
6Inside Box5
5Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
301Total Passes453
224Accurate Passes380
74%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Congo DR 1 – 0 Benin

Congo DR beat Benin 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on December 23, 2025.

Goals: T. Bongonda (16').

Benin controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Al-Barid Stadium in Rabat.