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Congaz vs Speranis Nisporeni — Cupa 2020

Congaz
Congaz
FT
0 – 3
Speranis Nisporeni
Speranis Nisporeni
9/24/2024CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Ceadîr Lunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Congaz3%
×Draw6%
Speranis Nisporeni92%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Congaz
0.67
Speranis Nisporeni
4.17

Speranis Nisporeni creates 522% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Congaz
0.33
Speranis Nisporeni
2.33

allows per match

Congaz
6.00
Speranis Nisporeni
1.00

finishing

Congaz+0.00on par
Speranis Nisporeni+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congaz ↓

Speranis Nisporeni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–311%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Congaz or draw
8%
Congaz or Speranis Nisporeni
94%
Draw or Speranis Nisporeni
97%

Winning margin

Congaz wins by 2+
1%
Speranis Nisporeni wins by 2+
79%

Team goals

Congaz 1+ goals
49%
Congaz 2+ goals
15%
Congaz 3+ goals
3%
Speranis Nisporeni 1+ goals
98%
Speranis Nisporeni 2+ goals
91%
Speranis Nisporeni 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

Congaz (draw refunded)
3%
Speranis Nisporeni (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congaz at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Speranis Nisporeni away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congaz attack 0.33 + Speranis Nisporeni defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Speranis Nisporeni attack 2.33 + Congaz defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Congaz scores more
3%
level
6%
Speranis Nisporeni scores more
92%

Speranis Nisporeni at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Speranis Nisporeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Congaz 0–3 Speranis Nisporeni

Speranis Nisporeni beat Congaz 3-0 in Cupa on September 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Ceadîr Lunga in Ceadîr Lunga.