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Congaz vs Saxan — Cupa 2020

Congaz
Congaz
FT
1 – 9
Saxan
Saxan
8/29/2023CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Ceadîr Lunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Congaz7%
×Draw9%
Saxan84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Congaz
1.52
Saxan
4.79

Saxan creates 215% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Congaz
0.33
Saxan
3.57

allows per match

Congaz
6.00
Saxan
2.71

finishing

Congaz+0.00on par
Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congaz ↓

Saxan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–34%
0–45%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

Congaz or draw
16%
Congaz or Saxan
91%
Draw or Saxan
93%

Winning margin

Congaz wins by 2+
3%
Saxan wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

Congaz 1+ goals
78%
Congaz 2+ goals
45%
Congaz 3+ goals
20%
Saxan 1+ goals
99%
Saxan 2+ goals
94%
Saxan 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

Congaz (draw refunded)
8%
Saxan (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congaz at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Saxan away — creates 3.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congaz attack 0.33 + Saxan defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Saxan attack 3.57 + Congaz defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Congaz scores more
7%
level
9%
Saxan scores more
84%

Saxan at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Congaz 1 – 9 Saxan

Saxan beat Congaz 9-1 in Cupa on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Ceadîr Lunga in Ceadîr Lunga.