Congaz 0–6 Olimp Comrat: Result & Stats | Cupa

Congaz

0 – 6

Olimp Comrat

8/24/2021

Cupa · 1st RoundStadionul Congaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Congaz11%

×Draw11%

Olimp Comrat78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CongazExpected goals in this matchOlimp Comrat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

4.30

Congaz

1.67

Olimp Comrat

4.30

Olimp Comrat creates 157% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

0.33

creates per match

2.60

6.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Congaz

0.33

Olimp Comrat

2.60

allows per match

Congaz

6.00

Olimp Comrat

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Congaz+0.00on par

Olimp Comrat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congaz ↓

Olimp Comrat →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–34%

0–44%

1–00%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–47%

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Congaz or draw

22%

Congaz or Olimp Comrat

89%

Draw or Olimp Comrat

89%

Winning margin

Congaz wins by 2+

Olimp Comrat wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Congaz 1+ goals

81%

Congaz 2+ goals

50%

Congaz 3+ goals

23%

Olimp Comrat 1+ goals

98%

Olimp Comrat 2+ goals

92%

Olimp Comrat 3+ goals

77%

Draw no bet

Congaz (draw refunded)

12%

Olimp Comrat (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Congaz at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Olimp Comrat away — creates 2.60, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Congaz attack 0.33 + Olimp Comrat defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Olimp Comrat attack 2.60 + Congaz defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Congaz scores more

11%

level

11%

Olimp Comrat scores more

78%

Olimp Comrat at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Olimp Comrat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff