Công An Nhân Dân 2–3 Nam Dinh: Result & Stats

Công An Nhân Dân

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Nam Dinh

5/4/2024

V.League 1 · Round 16Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Công An Nhân Dân56%

×Draw23%

Nam Dinh22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Công An Nhân DânExpected goals in this matchNam Dinh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.08

Công An Nhân Dân

1.87

Nam Dinh

1.08

Công An Nhân Dân creates 73% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 90 away

2.12

creates per match

1.26

0.90

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Công An Nhân Dân

2.12

Nam Dinh

1.26

allows per match

Công An Nhân Dân

0.90

Nam Dinh

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Nam Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Công An Nhân Dân ↓

Nam Dinh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Công An Nhân Dân or draw

78%

Công An Nhân Dân or Nam Dinh

77%

Draw or Nam Dinh

44%

Winning margin

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+

32%

Nam Dinh wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals

85%

Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals

56%

Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals

29%

Nam Dinh 1+ goals

66%

Nam Dinh 2+ goals

29%

Nam Dinh 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)

72%

Nam Dinh (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Công An Nhân Dân at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Nam Dinh away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.61 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Công An Nhân Dân attack 2.12 + Nam Dinh defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.87

Nam Dinh attack 1.26 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Công An Nhân Dân scores more

56%

level

23%

Nam Dinh scores more

22%

Công An Nhân Dân at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff