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Công An Nhân Dân vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh — Cup 2019

Công An Nhân Dân
Công An Nhân Dânadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Bui Hoang Viet Anh 90+3'
Alan Grafite 37'
Geovane Magno 68'
1/14/2025CupCup · Round of 16Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Công An Nhân Dân57%
×Draw21%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Công An Nhân Dân
2.06
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.20

Công An Nhân Dân creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Công An Nhân Dân
2.33
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.40

allows per match

Công An Nhân Dân
1.00
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.80

finishing

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Công An Nhân Dân ↓

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Công An Nhân Dân or draw
78%
Công An Nhân Dân or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
79%
Draw or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
43%

Winning margin

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+
34%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals
87%
Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals
61%
Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals
34%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals
70%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals
34%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)
72%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Công An Nhân Dân at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Công An Nhân Dân attack 2.33 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 1.40 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Công An Nhân Dân scores more
57%
level
21%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more
22%

Công An Nhân Dân at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Alan Grafite
68'
Geovane Magno
90+3'
Bui Hoang Viet Anh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Công An Nhân Dân 2–1 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Công An Nhân Dân beat Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2-1 in Cup on January 14, 2025.

Goals: Alan Grafite (37'), Geovane Magno (68'), Bui Hoang Viet Anh (90+3').

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy in Hanoi.