Công An Nhân Dân 3–0 Bóng đá Huế: Result & Stats

Công An Nhân Dân

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bóng đá Huế

Unknown 82', 68', 60'

8/27/2022

V.League 2 · Round 13Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Công An Nhân Dân59%

×Draw24%

Bóng đá Huế17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Công An Nhân DânExpected goals in this matchBóng đá Huế

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.79

Công An Nhân Dân

1.68

Bóng đá Huế

0.79

Công An Nhân Dân creates 113% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 51 away

1.77

creates per match

0.96

0.62

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Công An Nhân Dân

1.77

Bóng đá Huế

0.96

allows per match

Công An Nhân Dân

0.62

Bóng đá Huế

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Công An Nhân Dân ↓

Bóng đá Huế →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Công An Nhân Dân or draw

83%

Công An Nhân Dân or Bóng đá Huế

76%

Draw or Bóng đá Huế

41%

Winning margin

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+

33%

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals

81%

Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals

50%

Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals

24%

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

55%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

19%

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)

77%

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Công An Nhân Dân at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Công An Nhân Dân attack 1.77 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.96 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Công An Nhân Dân scores more

59%

level

24%

Bóng đá Huế scores more

17%

Công An Nhân Dân at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

68'

82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff