Công An Nhân Dân 1–0 Binh Duong: Result & Stats

Công An Nhân Dân

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Binh Duong

9/30/2024

V.League 1 · Round 3Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Công An Nhân Dân57%

×Draw23%

Binh Duong20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Công An Nhân DânExpected goals in this matchBinh Duong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.96

Công An Nhân Dân

1.81

Binh Duong

0.96

Công An Nhân Dân creates 89% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 92 away

2.12

creates per match

1.01

0.90

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Công An Nhân Dân

2.12

Binh Duong

1.01

allows per match

Công An Nhân Dân

0.90

Binh Duong

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Công An Nhân Dân ↓

Binh Duong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Công An Nhân Dân or draw

80%

Công An Nhân Dân or Binh Duong

77%

Draw or Binh Duong

43%

Winning margin

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+

33%

Binh Duong wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals

84%

Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals

54%

Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals

27%

Binh Duong 1+ goals

62%

Binh Duong 2+ goals

25%

Binh Duong 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)

74%

Binh Duong (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Công An Nhân Dân at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.51 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Công An Nhân Dân attack 2.12 + Binh Duong defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.81

Binh Duong attack 1.01 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Công An Nhân Dân scores more

57%

level

23%

Binh Duong scores more

20%

Công An Nhân Dân at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff