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Confiança vs Vitoria — Serie B 2026

Confiança
Confiança
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vitoria
Vitoria
Daniel Penha 7'
P. Siles 35'
7/10/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 10Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Confiança38%
×Draw29%
Vitoria34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Confiança
1.15
Vitoria
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 59 away

creates per match

Confiança
1.06
Vitoria
0.98

allows per match

Confiança
1.16
Vitoria
1.24

finishing

Confiança+0.00on par
Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Confiança ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Confiança or draw
66%
Confiança or Vitoria
71%
Draw or Vitoria
62%

Winning margin

Confiança wins by 2+
16%
Vitoria wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Confiança 1+ goals
68%
Confiança 2+ goals
32%
Confiança 3+ goals
11%
Vitoria 1+ goals
66%
Vitoria 2+ goals
29%
Vitoria 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Confiança (draw refunded)
53%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Confiança at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Vitoria away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Confiança attack 1.06 + Vitoria defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Vitoria attack 0.98 + Confiança defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Confiança scores more
38%
level
29%
Vitoria scores more
34%

Confiança at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Confiança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
LucianoConfiançaConfiança · D
7.9

Match Events

7'
Daniel Penha
26'
Daniel Penha
29'
Alex Henrique← Hernane
35'
P. Siles↳ Cedric
46'
Caique Sá← Neto Berola
46'
Bruno Sena← Renan
46'
Gustavo Ramos← Ítalo Melo
58'
Ygor Catatau← David
58'
Soares← Bruno Oliveira
59'
Fernando Neto
66'
Isaque Gavioli
70'
Marcelinho
74'
Pablo Siles
76'
Ygor Catatau
78'
Nery Bareiro
78'
Everton← Gilberto Santos
80'
Eron← Dinei
80'
Guilherme Santos← Ygor Catatau
80'
Gabriel Bispo← Fernando Neto

Possession

40%Confiança

Shots

13Confiança

Pass accuracy

47%Confiança

Statistics

ConfiançaVitoria
Overview
40%Possession60%
13Total Shots14
5Corners5
22Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots14
6On Target2
5Off Target7
2Blocked5
8Inside Box6
5Outside Box8
Passing
40%Possession60%
332Total Passes511
254Accurate Passes437
77%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
22Fouls14
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1

Serie B: Confiança 1–1 Vitoria

Confiança and Vitoria drew 1-1 in Serie B on July 10, 2021.

Goals: Daniel Penha (7'), P. Siles (35').

Vitoria controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista in Aracaju, Sergipe.