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Confiança vs Retrô — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Confiança
Confiança
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Retrô
Retrô
1/6/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · 1st Qualifying RoundEstádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Confiança56%
×Draw25%
Retrô19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Confiança
1.56
Retrô
0.78

Confiança creates 100% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Confiança
1.11
Retrô
0.83

allows per match

Confiança
0.74
Retrô
2.00

finishing

Confiança+0.00on par
Retrô+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Confiança ↓

Retrô →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Confiança or draw
81%
Confiança or Retrô
75%
Draw or Retrô
44%

Winning margin

Confiança wins by 2+
30%
Retrô wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Confiança 1+ goals
79%
Confiança 2+ goals
46%
Confiança 3+ goals
21%
Retrô 1+ goals
54%
Retrô 2+ goals
18%
Retrô 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Confiança (draw refunded)
75%
Retrô (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Confiança at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Retrô away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Confiança attack 1.11 + Retrô defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Retrô attack 0.83 + Confiança defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Confiança scores more
56%
level
25%
Retrô scores more
19%

Confiança at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Confiança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: Confiança 1–1 Retrô

Confiança and Retrô drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista in Aracaju, Sergipe.