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Confiança vs AO Itabaiana — Serie C 2025

Confiança
Confiança
Preview
21:30
AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
7/25/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 15
Big match
50%
Confiança
model favours
50%30%20%

AO Itabaiana have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Confiança50%
×Draw30%
AO Itabaiana20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Confiança
1.26
AO Itabaiana
0.69

Confiança creates 83% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Confiança
1.28
AO Itabaiana
0.59

allows per match

Confiança
0.78
AO Itabaiana
1.24

finishing

Confiança+0.00on par
AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Confiança ↓

AO Itabaiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Confiança or draw
80%
Confiança or AO Itabaiana
70%
Draw or AO Itabaiana
50%

Winning margin

Confiança wins by 2+
23%
AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Confiança 1+ goals
72%
Confiança 2+ goals
36%
Confiança 3+ goals
13%
AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
50%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
15%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Confiança (draw refunded)
71%
AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Confiança at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

AO Itabaiana away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Confiança attack 1.28 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

AO Itabaiana attack 0.59 + Confiança defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Confiança scores more
50%
level
30%
AO Itabaiana scores more
20%

Confiança at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Confiança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Confiança score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 20% of AO Itabaiana’s matches
  • 73% of Confiança’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 70% of AO Itabaiana’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Confiança
LLDWL
Itabaiana
WWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Confiança face AO Itabaiana (Serie C)

Serie C returns with Confiança hosting AO Itabaiana. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.