Confiança 1–0 AO Itabaiana: Result & Stats

Confiança

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AO Itabaiana

Lorran 74'

2/8/2026

League #626 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Confiança30%

×Draw26%

AO Itabaiana44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConfiançaExpected goals in this matchAO Itabaiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.44

Confiança

1.14

AO Itabaiana

1.44

AO Itabaiana creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

1.67

1.20

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Confiança

1.60

AO Itabaiana

1.67

allows per match

Confiança

1.20

AO Itabaiana

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Confiança+0.00on par

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Confiança ↓

AO Itabaiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Confiança or draw

56%

Confiança or AO Itabaiana

74%

Draw or AO Itabaiana

70%

Winning margin

Confiança wins by 2+

12%

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Confiança 1+ goals

68%

Confiança 2+ goals

32%

Confiança 3+ goals

11%

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals

76%

AO Itabaiana 2+ goals

42%

AO Itabaiana 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Confiança (draw refunded)

41%

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Confiança at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

AO Itabaiana away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Confiança attack 1.60 + AO Itabaiana defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

AO Itabaiana attack 1.67 + Confiança defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Confiança scores more

30%

level

26%

AO Itabaiana scores more

44%

AO Itabaiana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'

Lorran

90+6'

Confiança

AO

Manager: Vieira Luizinho

Manager: Cavalo Roberto