Confiança 2–3 Amazonas: Result & Stats | Serie C

Confiança

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Amazonas

Diego Cardoso 76' (pen)

Bruno Camilo 69'

Sassá 59' (pen), 36', 22'

6/4/2023

Serie C · Round 6Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Confiança45%

×Draw27%

Amazonas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConfiançaExpected goals in this matchAmazonas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.03

Confiança

1.39

Amazonas

1.03

Confiança creates 35% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 21 away

1.26

creates per match

1.19

0.87

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Confiança

1.26

Amazonas

1.19

allows per match

Confiança

0.87

Amazonas

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Confiança+0.00on par

Amazonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Confiança ↓

Amazonas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Confiança or draw

72%

Confiança or Amazonas

73%

Draw or Amazonas

55%

Winning margin

Confiança wins by 2+

22%

Amazonas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Confiança 1+ goals

75%

Confiança 2+ goals

40%

Confiança 3+ goals

16%

Amazonas 1+ goals

64%

Amazonas 2+ goals

28%

Amazonas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Confiança (draw refunded)

62%

Amazonas (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Confiança at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.87 · 69 matches

Amazonas away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Confiança attack 1.26 + Amazonas defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Amazonas attack 1.19 + Confiança defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Confiança scores more

45%

level

27%

Amazonas scores more

28%

Confiança at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Confiança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

12'

22'

36'

46'

Cesinha← Willians Santana

46'

Lucas Gabriel← Betinho

46'

Foguinho← DG

46'

Xavier← J. Jiménez

59'

SassáPenalty

62'

Bruno Camilo← Dione

62'

Diego Cardoso← Tcharlles

65'

Robertinho← PH

69'

Bruno Camilo

71'

72'

Felippe Borges

74'

Fabian Volpi

76'

Diego CardosoPenalty

78'

Ruan← Rafael Tavares

86'

Riquelmo← Lenon

86'

Alison← Luís Gustavo

Confiança

Amazonas

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Vinícius Eutrópio

46'▲Cesinha←▼Willians Santana

46'▲Lucas Gabriel←▼Betinho

62'▲Bruno Camilo←▼Dione

62'▲Diego Cardoso←▼Tcharlles

86'▲Riquelmo←▼Lenon

Confiança substitutes

CesinhaGabrielCamiloCardosoRiquelmoSouzaGrafiteCapaFerrariSalazarRafaelJúnior

Manager: Rafael Lacerda

46'▲Foguinho←▼DG

46'▲Xavier←▼J. Jiménez

65'▲Robertinho←▼PH

78'▲Ruan←▼Rafael Tavares

86'▲Alison←▼Luís Gustavo

Amazonas substitutes

FoguinhoXavierRobertinhoRuanAlisonMarddenHilaCharlesFernandinhoErmelSallinasLocatelli