Condeixa 1–1 Vitória de Sernache: Result & Stats

Condeixa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vitória de Sernache

12/20/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 9Estádio Municipal de Condeixa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Condeixa40%

×Draw25%

Vitória de Sernache34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CondeixaExpected goals in this matchVitória de Sernache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.33

Condeixa

1.46

Vitória de Sernache

1.33

Condeixa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

1.55

1.10

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Condeixa

1.00

Vitória de Sernache

1.55

allows per match

Condeixa

1.10

Vitória de Sernache

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Condeixa+0.00on par

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condeixa ↓

Vitória de Sernache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Condeixa or draw

66%

Condeixa or Vitória de Sernache

75%

Draw or Vitória de Sernache

60%

Winning margin

Condeixa wins by 2+

19%

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Condeixa 1+ goals

77%

Condeixa 2+ goals

43%

Condeixa 3+ goals

18%

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals

74%

Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals

38%

Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Condeixa (draw refunded)

54%

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Condeixa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Condeixa attack 1.00 + Vitória de Sernache defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.55 + Condeixa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Condeixa scores more

40%

level

25%

Vitória de Sernache scores more

34%

Condeixa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Condeixa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff