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Condeixa vs Sertanense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Condeixa
Condeixa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sertanense
Sertanense
4/10/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 22Estádio Municipal de Condeixa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Condeixa36%
×Draw28%
Sertanense36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Condeixa
1.15
Sertanense
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Condeixa
1.00
Sertanense
1.20

allows per match

Condeixa
1.10
Sertanense
1.30

finishing

Condeixa+0.00on par
Sertanense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condeixa ↓

Sertanense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Condeixa or draw
64%
Condeixa or Sertanense
72%
Draw or Sertanense
64%

Winning margin

Condeixa wins by 2+
15%
Sertanense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Condeixa 1+ goals
68%
Condeixa 2+ goals
32%
Condeixa 3+ goals
11%
Sertanense 1+ goals
68%
Sertanense 2+ goals
32%
Sertanense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Condeixa (draw refunded)
50%
Sertanense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Condeixa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Sertanense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Condeixa attack 1.00 + Sertanense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sertanense attack 1.20 + Condeixa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Condeixa scores more
36%
level
28%
Sertanense scores more
36%

Condeixa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Condeixa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Condeixa vs Sertanense

Condeixa and Sertanense drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Condeixa in Condeixa-a-Nova.