Condeixa 1–3 Pacos Ferreira: Result & Stats

Condeixa

FT

1 – 3

Pacos Ferreira

9/30/2018

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Condeixa (Condeixa-a-Nova)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Condeixa20%

×Draw23%

Pacos Ferreira57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CondeixaExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.79

Condeixa

0.96

Pacos Ferreira

1.79

Pacos Ferreira creates 86% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

0.67

creates per match

1.75

1.83

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Condeixa

0.67

Pacos Ferreira

1.75

allows per match

Condeixa

1.83

Pacos Ferreira

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Condeixa+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condeixa ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Condeixa or draw

43%

Condeixa or Pacos Ferreira

77%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

80%

Winning margin

Condeixa wins by 2+

7%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Condeixa 1+ goals

62%

Condeixa 2+ goals

25%

Condeixa 3+ goals

7%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

83%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

53%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Condeixa (draw refunded)

26%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Condeixa at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Condeixa attack 0.67 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.75 + Condeixa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Condeixa scores more

20%

level

23%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

57%

Pacos Ferreira at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff