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Condeixa vs Oliveira Hospital — Taça de Portugal 2018

Condeixa
Condeixa
FT
0 – 0
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Condeixa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Condeixa34%
×Draw24%
Oliveira Hospital42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Condeixa
1.44
Oliveira Hospital
1.61

Oliveira Hospital creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Condeixa
0.67
Oliveira Hospital
1.40

allows per match

Condeixa
1.83
Oliveira Hospital
2.20

finishing

Condeixa+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condeixa ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Condeixa or draw
58%
Condeixa or Oliveira Hospital
76%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
66%

Winning margin

Condeixa wins by 2+
16%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Condeixa 1+ goals
76%
Condeixa 2+ goals
42%
Condeixa 3+ goals
18%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
80%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
48%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Condeixa (draw refunded)
45%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Condeixa at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Condeixa attack 0.67 + Oliveira Hospital defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.40 + Condeixa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Condeixa scores more
34%
level
24%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
42%

Oliveira Hospital at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Condeixa vs Oliveira Hospital

Condeixa and Oliveira Hospital drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Condeixa in Condeixa-a-Nova.