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Condeixa vs Lusitânia — Taça de Portugal 2018

Condeixa
Condeixa
FT
0 – 0
Lusitânia
Lusitânia
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Condeixa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Condeixa44%
×Draw26%
Lusitânia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Condeixa
1.46
Lusitânia
1.17

Condeixa creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Condeixa
0.67
Lusitânia
0.50

allows per match

Condeixa
1.83
Lusitânia
2.25

finishing

Condeixa+0.00on par
Lusitânia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condeixa ↓

Lusitânia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Condeixa or draw
70%
Condeixa or Lusitânia
74%
Draw or Lusitânia
56%

Winning margin

Condeixa wins by 2+
21%
Lusitânia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Condeixa 1+ goals
77%
Condeixa 2+ goals
43%
Condeixa 3+ goals
18%
Lusitânia 1+ goals
69%
Lusitânia 2+ goals
33%
Lusitânia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Condeixa (draw refunded)
59%
Lusitânia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Condeixa at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Lusitânia away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Condeixa attack 0.67 + Lusitânia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lusitânia attack 0.50 + Condeixa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Condeixa scores more
44%
level
26%
Lusitânia scores more
30%

Condeixa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Condeixa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Condeixa vs Lusitânia

Condeixa and Lusitânia drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Condeixa in Condeixa-a-Nova.