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Condeixa vs GRAP — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Condeixa
Condeixa
CANC
15:00
GRAP
GRAP
2/21/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 17Estádio Municipal de Condeixa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Condeixa58%
×Draw27%
GRAP15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Condeixa
1.40
GRAP
0.55

Condeixa creates 155% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Condeixa
1.00
GRAP
0.00

allows per match

Condeixa
1.10
GRAP
1.80

finishing

Condeixa+0.00on par
GRAP+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condeixa ↓

GRAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Condeixa or draw
85%
Condeixa or GRAP
73%
Draw or GRAP
42%

Winning margin

Condeixa wins by 2+
29%
GRAP wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Condeixa 1+ goals
75%
Condeixa 2+ goals
41%
Condeixa 3+ goals
17%
GRAP 1+ goals
42%
GRAP 2+ goals
11%
GRAP 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Condeixa (draw refunded)
80%
GRAP (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Condeixa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

GRAP away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Condeixa attack 1.00 + GRAP defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

GRAP attack 0.00 + Condeixa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Condeixa scores more
58%
level
27%
GRAP scores more
15%

Condeixa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Condeixa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Condeixa host GRAP

February 21, 2021: Condeixa take on GRAP in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Condeixa host GRAP at Estádio Municipal de Condeixa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.