Condeixa 0–5 GIL Vicente: Result & Stats

Condeixa

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

GIL Vicente

10/17/2021

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal de Condeixa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Condeixa13%

×Draw22%

GIL Vicente65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CondeixaExpected goals in this matchGIL Vicente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

1.80

Condeixa

0.65

GIL Vicente

1.80

GIL Vicente creates 177% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

0.67

creates per match

1.77

1.83

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Condeixa

0.67

GIL Vicente

1.77

allows per match

Condeixa

1.83

GIL Vicente

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Condeixa+0.00on par

GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condeixa ↓

GIL Vicente →

0–09%

0–116%

0–214%

0–38%

0–44%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Condeixa or draw

35%

Condeixa or GIL Vicente

78%

Draw or GIL Vicente

87%

Winning margin

Condeixa wins by 2+

GIL Vicente wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Condeixa 1+ goals

48%

Condeixa 2+ goals

14%

Condeixa 3+ goals

GIL Vicente 1+ goals

83%

GIL Vicente 2+ goals

54%

GIL Vicente 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Condeixa (draw refunded)

17%

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Condeixa at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Condeixa attack 0.67 + GIL Vicente defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

GIL Vicente attack 1.77 + Condeixa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Condeixa scores more

13%

level

22%

GIL Vicente scores more

65%

GIL Vicente at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff