Condal 2–1 Vallobín: Result & Stats

Condal

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vallobín

4/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Alejandro Ortea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Condal49%

×Draw28%

Vallobín24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CondalExpected goals in this matchVallobín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.86

Condal

1.37

Vallobín

0.86

Condal creates 59% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 28 away

0.88

creates per match

0.68

1.05

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Condal

0.88

Vallobín

0.68

allows per match

Condal

1.05

Vallobín

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Condal+0.00on par

Vallobín+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condal ↓

Vallobín →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Condal or draw

76%

Condal or Vallobín

72%

Draw or Vallobín

51%

Winning margin

Condal wins by 2+

23%

Vallobín wins by 2+

Team goals

Condal 1+ goals

75%

Condal 2+ goals

40%

Condal 3+ goals

16%

Vallobín 1+ goals

58%

Vallobín 2+ goals

21%

Vallobín 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Condal (draw refunded)

67%

Vallobín (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Condal at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Vallobín away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Condal attack 0.88 + Vallobín defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.37

Vallobín attack 0.68 + Condal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Condal scores more

49%

level

28%

Vallobín scores more

24%

Condal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Condal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff