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Condal vs Siero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Condal
Condal
CANC
22:00
Siero
Siero
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio Alejandro Ortea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Condal42%
×Draw30%
Siero28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Condal
1.17
Siero
0.90

Condal creates 30% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 46 away

creates per match

Condal
0.88
Siero
0.74

allows per match

Condal
1.05
Siero
1.46

finishing

Condal+0.00on par
Siero+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condal ↓

Siero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Condal or draw
72%
Condal or Siero
70%
Draw or Siero
58%

Winning margin

Condal wins by 2+
18%
Siero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Condal 1+ goals
69%
Condal 2+ goals
33%
Condal 3+ goals
11%
Siero 1+ goals
59%
Siero 2+ goals
23%
Siero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Condal (draw refunded)
60%
Siero (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Condal at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Siero away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Condal attack 0.88 + Siero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Siero attack 0.74 + Condal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Condal scores more
42%
level
30%
Siero scores more
28%

Condal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Condal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Condal host Siero

May 9, 2020: Condal take on Siero in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Condal host Siero at Estadio Alejandro Ortea.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.