Condal 0–1 Real Oviedo II: Result & Stats

Condal

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Oviedo II

10/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Alejandro Ortea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Condal21%

×Draw27%

Real Oviedo II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CondalExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.47

Condal

0.81

Real Oviedo II

1.47

Real Oviedo II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 36 away

0.88

creates per match

1.89

1.05

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Condal

0.88

Real Oviedo II

1.89

allows per match

Condal

1.05

Real Oviedo II

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Condal+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condal ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Condal or draw

47%

Condal or Real Oviedo II

73%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

79%

Winning margin

Condal wins by 2+

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Condal 1+ goals

56%

Condal 2+ goals

19%

Condal 3+ goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

77%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

43%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Condal (draw refunded)

28%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Condal at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Condal attack 0.88 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Condal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Condal scores more

21%

level

27%

Real Oviedo II scores more

53%

Real Oviedo II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff