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Condal vs Real Avilés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Condal
Condal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Alejandro Ortea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Condal35%
×Draw29%
Real Avilés36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Condal
1.08
Real Avilés
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 28 away

creates per match

Condal
0.88
Real Avilés
1.18

allows per match

Condal
1.05
Real Avilés
1.29

finishing

Condal+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condal ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Condal or draw
64%
Condal or Real Avilés
71%
Draw or Real Avilés
65%

Winning margin

Condal wins by 2+
14%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Condal 1+ goals
66%
Condal 2+ goals
29%
Condal 3+ goals
10%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
67%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
30%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Condal (draw refunded)
49%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Condal at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Condal attack 0.88 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + Condal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Condal scores more
35%
level
29%
Real Avilés scores more
36%

Real Avilés at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Condal 1–1 Real Avilés

Condal and Real Avilés drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Ortea in Noreña.