Condal 0–1 Avilés Stadium: Result & Stats

Condal

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Avilés Stadium

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Estadio Alejandro Ortea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Condal45%

×Draw28%

Avilés Stadium27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CondalExpected goals in this matchAvilés Stadium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.95

Condal

1.31

Avilés Stadium

0.95

Condal creates 38% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 80 away

0.88

creates per match

0.85

1.05

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Condal

0.88

Avilés Stadium

0.85

allows per match

Condal

1.05

Avilés Stadium

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Condal+0.00on par

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condal ↓

Avilés Stadium →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Condal or draw

73%

Condal or Avilés Stadium

72%

Draw or Avilés Stadium

55%

Winning margin

Condal wins by 2+

21%

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Condal 1+ goals

73%

Condal 2+ goals

38%

Condal 3+ goals

14%

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals

61%

Avilés Stadium 2+ goals

25%

Avilés Stadium 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Condal (draw refunded)

62%

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Condal at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Condal attack 0.88 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Condal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Condal scores more

45%

level

28%

Avilés Stadium scores more

27%

Condal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Condal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff