Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Concordia Wiemelhausen vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
A. Uzunbas 58' (pen)
A. Dej 55'
4/17/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 31Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen32%
×Draw21%
Sportfreunde Siegen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.74
Sportfreunde Siegen
2.13

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.05
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.79

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.47
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.44

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw
53%
Concordia Wiemelhausen or Sportfreunde Siegen
79%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
68%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
16%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
82%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
52%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
25%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
88%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
63%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
41%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
32%
level
21%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
47%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
A. Dej
58'
A. UzunbasPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Concordia Wiemelhausen 1–1 Sportfreunde Siegen

Concordia Wiemelhausen and Sportfreunde Siegen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 17, 2025.

Goals: A. Dej (55'), A. Uzunbas (58' pen).

The match was played at Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen in Bochum.