Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Concordia vs Viitorul Constanta — Liga I 2018

Concordia
Concordia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
7/30/2018Liga ILiga I · Round 2Stadionul Concordia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Concordia30%
×Draw27%
Viitorul Constanta43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia
1.09
Viitorul Constanta
1.36

Viitorul Constanta creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 59 away

creates per match

Concordia
1.05
Viitorul Constanta
1.07

allows per match

Concordia
1.65
Viitorul Constanta
1.14

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par
Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

Viitorul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Concordia or draw
57%
Concordia or Viitorul Constanta
73%
Draw or Viitorul Constanta
70%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+
12%
Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals
66%
Concordia 2+ goals
30%
Concordia 3+ goals
10%
Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
74%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
39%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)
41%
Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 1.05 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + Concordia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Concordia scores more
30%
level
27%
Viitorul Constanta scores more
43%

Viitorul Constanta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia vs Viitorul Constanta

Concordia and Viitorul Constanta drew 1-1 in Liga I on July 30, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Concordia in Chiajna.