Concordia 2–0 Unirea Constanța: Result & Stats

Concordia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Unirea Constanța

7/31/2021

Liga II · Round 1Stadionul Concordia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Concordia66%

×Draw19%

Unirea Constanța15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcordiaExpected goals in this matchUnirea Constanța

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.01

Concordia

2.29

Unirea Constanța

1.01

Concordia creates 127% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 25 away

1.35

creates per match

1.08

0.94

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

Concordia

1.35

Unirea Constanța

1.08

allows per match

Concordia

0.94

Unirea Constanța

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

Unirea Constanța →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Concordia or draw

85%

Concordia or Unirea Constanța

81%

Draw or Unirea Constanța

34%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+

43%

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals

90%

Concordia 2+ goals

66%

Concordia 3+ goals

40%

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals

64%

Unirea Constanța 2+ goals

27%

Unirea Constanța 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)

81%

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 1.35 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.29

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Concordia defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Concordia scores more

66%

level

19%

Unirea Constanța scores more

15%

Concordia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Concordia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff