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Concordia vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga II 2018

Concordia
Concordia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
12/1/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Concordia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Concordia39%
×Draw28%
U Craiova 194832%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia
1.23
U Craiova 1948
1.09

Concordia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 29 away

creates per match

Concordia
1.35
U Craiova 1948
1.24

allows per match

Concordia
0.94
U Craiova 1948
1.10

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Concordia or draw
68%
Concordia or U Craiova 1948
72%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
61%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+
17%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals
71%
Concordia 2+ goals
35%
Concordia 3+ goals
13%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
66%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
30%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)
55%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 1.35 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + Concordia defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Concordia scores more
39%
level
28%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
32%

Concordia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Concordia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Concordia 0–2 U Craiova 1948

U Craiova 1948 beat Concordia 2-0 in Liga II on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Concordia in Chiajna.