Concordia 2–0 Sportul Snagov: Result & Stats

Concordia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sportul Snagov

11/9/2019

Liga II · Round 16Stadionul Concordia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Concordia50%

×Draw25%

Sportul Snagov25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcordiaExpected goals in this matchSportul Snagov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.02

Concordia

1.56

Sportul Snagov

1.02

Concordia creates 53% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 30 away

1.35

creates per match

1.10

0.94

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Concordia

1.35

Sportul Snagov

1.10

allows per match

Concordia

0.94

Sportul Snagov

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

Sportul Snagov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Concordia or draw

75%

Concordia or Sportul Snagov

75%

Draw or Sportul Snagov

50%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+

26%

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals

79%

Concordia 2+ goals

46%

Concordia 3+ goals

21%

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals

64%

Sportul Snagov 2+ goals

27%

Sportul Snagov 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)

67%

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 1.35 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Concordia defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Concordia scores more

50%

level

25%

Sportul Snagov scores more

25%

Concordia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Concordia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff