Concordia vs Progresul Spartac

Concordia

CANC

09:00

Progresul Spartac

2/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Concordia78%

×Draw14%

Progresul Spartac8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcordiaExpected goals in this matchProgresul Spartac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.83

Concordia

2.83

Progresul Spartac

0.83

Concordia creates 241% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Concordia

0.67

Progresul Spartac

1.00

allows per match

Concordia

0.67

Progresul Spartac

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par

Progresul Spartac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

Progresul Spartac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Concordia or draw

92%

Concordia or Progresul Spartac

86%

Draw or Progresul Spartac

22%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+

58%

Progresul Spartac wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals

94%

Concordia 2+ goals

77%

Concordia 3+ goals

53%

Progresul Spartac 1+ goals

56%

Progresul Spartac 2+ goals

20%

Progresul Spartac 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)

90%

Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Progresul Spartac away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 0.67 + Progresul Spartac defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Progresul Spartac attack 1.00 + Concordia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Concordia scores more

78%

level

14%

Progresul Spartac scores more

8%

Concordia at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Concordia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff