Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Concórdia vs Novo Hamburgo — Serie D 2018

Concórdia
Concórdia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Novo Hamburgo
Novo Hamburgo
6/18/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Concórdia52%
×Draw28%
Novo Hamburgo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concórdia
1.36
Novo Hamburgo
0.74

Concórdia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Concórdia
1.50
Novo Hamburgo
0.78

allows per match

Concórdia
0.71
Novo Hamburgo
1.22

finishing

Concórdia+0.00on par
Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concórdia ↓

Novo Hamburgo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Concórdia or draw
80%
Concórdia or Novo Hamburgo
72%
Draw or Novo Hamburgo
48%

Winning margin

Concórdia wins by 2+
25%
Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Concórdia 1+ goals
74%
Concórdia 2+ goals
39%
Concórdia 3+ goals
16%
Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals
52%
Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals
17%
Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Concórdia (draw refunded)
72%
Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concórdia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Novo Hamburgo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concórdia attack 1.50 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Novo Hamburgo attack 0.78 + Concórdia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Concórdia scores more
52%
level
28%
Novo Hamburgo scores more
20%

Concórdia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Concórdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concórdia vs Novo Hamburgo

Concórdia and Novo Hamburgo drew 1-1 in Serie D on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima in Concórdia, Santa Catarina.