Concórdia 1–1 Independiente FSJ: Result & Stats

Concórdia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente FSJ

5/28/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Concórdia52%

×Draw28%

Independiente FSJ20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcórdiaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente FSJ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.73

Concórdia

1.38

Independiente FSJ

0.73

Concórdia creates 89% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.50

creates per match

0.75

0.71

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Concórdia

1.50

Independiente FSJ

0.75

allows per match

Concórdia

0.71

Independiente FSJ

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concórdia+0.00on par

Independiente FSJ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concórdia ↓

Independiente FSJ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Concórdia or draw

80%

Concórdia or Independiente FSJ

72%

Draw or Independiente FSJ

48%

Winning margin

Concórdia wins by 2+

26%

Independiente FSJ wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Concórdia 1+ goals

75%

Concórdia 2+ goals

40%

Concórdia 3+ goals

16%

Independiente FSJ 1+ goals

52%

Independiente FSJ 2+ goals

17%

Independiente FSJ 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Concórdia (draw refunded)

73%

Independiente FSJ (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concórdia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Independiente FSJ away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concórdia attack 1.50 + Independiente FSJ defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Independiente FSJ attack 0.75 + Concórdia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Concórdia scores more

52%

level

28%

Independiente FSJ scores more

20%

Concórdia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Concórdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff