Concordia 0–0 GAZ Metan Medias: Result & Stats

Concordia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GAZ Metan Medias

11/5/2018

Liga I · Round 14Stadionul Concordia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Concordia38%

×Draw26%

GAZ Metan Medias36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcordiaExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.27

Concordia

1.32

GAZ Metan Medias

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 76 away

1.05

creates per match

0.89

1.65

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Concordia

1.05

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

Concordia

1.65

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Concordia or draw

64%

Concordia or GAZ Metan Medias

74%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

62%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+

17%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals

73%

Concordia 2+ goals

38%

Concordia 3+ goals

15%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

72%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

36%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)

52%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 1.05 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + Concordia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Concordia scores more

38%

level

26%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

36%

Concordia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Concordia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

P. Batin← G. Guessan

59'

Andrei Marc

60'

Tha'er Al Bawab← S. Măzărache

74'

Răzvan Grădinaru

78'

P. Ivanovici← R. Grădinaru

86'

R. Trif← N. Chamed

90+3'

M. Stancu← A. Ivanov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ConcordiaGAZ

Overview

45%Possession55%

2Total Shots8

3Corners8

21Fouls16

Shots

2Total Shots8

0On Target5

2Off Target3

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

21Fouls16

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0