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Concórdia U20 vs Marcilio Dias U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Concórdia U20
Concórdia U20
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
6/7/2025Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Concórdia U2033%
×Draw24%
Marcilio Dias U2044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concórdia U20
1.44
Marcilio Dias U20
1.70

Marcilio Dias U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

creates per match

Concórdia U20
1.20
Marcilio Dias U20
1.79

allows per match

Concórdia U20
1.60
Marcilio Dias U20
1.68

finishing

Concórdia U20+0.00on par
Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concórdia U20 ↓

Marcilio Dias U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Concórdia U20 or draw
56%
Concórdia U20 or Marcilio Dias U20
76%
Draw or Marcilio Dias U20
67%

Winning margin

Concórdia U20 wins by 2+
15%
Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Concórdia U20 1+ goals
76%
Concórdia U20 2+ goals
42%
Concórdia U20 3+ goals
18%
Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
82%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
51%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Concórdia U20 (draw refunded)
43%
Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concórdia U20 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Marcilio Dias U20 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concórdia U20 attack 1.20 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.79 + Concórdia U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Concórdia U20 scores more
33%
level
24%
Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
44%

Marcilio Dias U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marcilio Dias U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concórdia U20 vs Marcilio Dias U20

Concórdia U20 and Marcilio Dias U20 drew 3-3 in Catarinense U20 on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima in Concórdia, Santa Catarina.