Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Concordia Elbląg vs Wikielec — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wikielec
Wikielec
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg42%
×Draw25%
Wikielec33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Elbląg
1.50
Wikielec
1.31

Concordia Elbląg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.29
Wikielec
1.17

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.45
Wikielec
1.72

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par
Wikielec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Wikielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw
67%
Concordia Elbląg or Wikielec
75%
Draw or Wikielec
58%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
20%
Wikielec wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
78%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
44%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
19%
Wikielec 1+ goals
73%
Wikielec 2+ goals
38%
Wikielec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
56%
Wikielec (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Wikielec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Wikielec defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wikielec attack 1.17 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more
42%
level
25%
Wikielec scores more
33%

Concordia Elbląg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Concordia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Concordia Elbląg 1–1 Wikielec

Concordia Elbląg and Wikielec drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa in Elbląg.